MAF forecast: Stable log exports

Wednesday 17 Oct 2018

New Zealand’s primary industry export revenue is forecast to reach $43.8 billion for the year to June 2019, an increase of 2.5 percent from 2018.

The Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI) has just released its Situation and Outlook report for September 2018.

“The latest update gives an encouraging assessment of our major primary sectors which continue to grow - up $1.1 billion from the previous year,” says Emma Taylor, a MAF policy director.

It’s a promising outlook and builds on the strong growth seen in 2018, when export revenue increased 11.8 percent. The year ended 30 June 2018 saw continued strong demand for logs in China bringing record export prices and volumes.

Forestry exports are expected to remain stable at $6.4 billion for 2019. Log prices are expected to remain near record levels as Chinese construction activity is forecast to remain strong.

Horticulture and dairy are the driving forces behind the increase forecast for 2019. Horticulture exports are forecast to rise 13.1 percent to $6.1 billion for the year ending June 2019. Dairy exports are forecast to rise 2.1 percent to $17.0 billion for the year ending June 2019, consolidating gains made in the last two years.

After an impressive gain in meat and wool exports in 2018, exports are forecast to decrease by 1.3 percent to $9.4 billion in 2019.

“Overall, the latest outlook for our primary industries gives plenty of positives as we work to sustainably reposition primary industries up the value chain and deepen sector partnerships,” say Taylor.

MPI’s Economic Intelligence Unit has published a new webpage designed to make MPI’s data and analysis more accessible. For more information see:

The next Situation and Outlook for Primary Industries report is due to be released in mid December.

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