Log Price Outlook Survey

Wednesday 21 Aug 2019

Please participate in Scion’s 18th Log Price Outlook Survey. Thank you to those who suggested new areas to forecast. From the participants’ requests we updated the questions.

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Fifty-nine people from various parts of New Zealand’s domestic and international forest products supply chains participated in this outlook. These participants represent a substantial component of the NZ forestry industry. Log price decreased by $2/m3 from February 2019 to April 2019. This change results in a lower price than the February forecast, but it is in line with the 12-month forecast from May 2018. Looking forward, volumes are now anticipated to increase in the next three months, then become steady and relatively consistent.

The forecast this month looks very flat. However, this does not necessarily indicate that respondents saw about 2 % decrease, but rather that those who anticipate a decrease in log prices outweighed those expecting an increase, with a weighted average equating to 2.5% for the next 6 months (see Figure 3). Twelve months later, the weighted average resulted in 0.2% increase, showing a recovery in the market back to present conditions.

Respondents indicate 1.6% log pruned log price increase in the next 12 months period.

If you operate a business anywhere along the forestry products supply chain then please consider casting your vote in our August Outlook. All information is treated as confidential and results are reported anonymously and at an aggregated scale only. The Outlook will be shared exclusively with participants in September and will only become available publicly in October.

Please participate before Friday 30 August.

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