MPI forestry exports update
Wednesday 18 Dec 2019
Forestry exports for the year ending June 2020 are forecast to fall 12.8 percent to $6.0 billion compared to the year ended June 2019 when prices and volumes were at record highs. This is $0.2 billion higher than the September forecast for year ending June 2020 as log prices are recovering more quickly than expected from their sharp fall over June and July of this year.
Export revenue is forecast to reach $47.9 billion in the year ending June 2020, up 3.3 percent from the previous year. This forecast is $1.7 billion higher than the previous forecast round, with upward revisions to dairy, meat and wool, and forestry. A lot of these gains can be attributed to rising global commodity prices and the drivers behind rising prices are likely to be sustained through 2020 and 2021.
Following a sharp fall in June, log prices are recovering faster than expected. However the flow on effect on export volumes is expected to restrict forestry sector export revenues in the year ahead.
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