Rayonier: Analysts review quarterly results

Wednesday 12 Feb 2020

First Look at RYN's Q4: Q4 Modestly Ahead, Guidance Soft - RYN reported Q4 EPS of $0.12, above BMO/consensus of $0.09. Adj. EBITDA of $65mm in line with BMO's $64mm and consensus $65mm. All three timber segments were ahead of BMO from higher vol's, offset by Real Estate (R/E). FY20 EBITDA range of $245-270mm driven by ~$25mm uptick in R/E (H2 loaded) and bumps in So. and W. harvest vol’s. Guide below BMO at $280mm and consensus of $271mm.

New Zealand (NZ). Modestly above BMO. Adjusted EBITDA $16.1mm; BMO at $13.4mm, Q3 $17.7mm, 4Q18 $19.3mm. Q4 harvests up 5% y/y and 2% above BMO. Sawlog prices were weak: Export -11% y/y, +8% q/q, Domestic -13% y/y, -8% q/q. RYN is flagging competitive pressure in China from the Euro beetle and slowing demand from coronavirus. New fuel rules will raise 2020 freight costs.

Source: BMO Capital Markets, Canada

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